QT + SSMT, as I read it

Tap Right, Partly or Wrong under each picture. Type only where I'm off. Saves itself.

Locked from your notes Stage 1 ≥ DailyNo revolving open: last True Open holds until the next prints Two True Opens minimumNQ + ES break, YM holds = SSMT Entry · stop · target · news · limits → from data
1 · Cycles

Cycles inside cycles

Every quarter is the next cycle down. Gold tick = True Open (open of Q2).

Yearlydaily candles Jan–Mar Apr–Jun Jul–Sep Oct–Dec TYO Dec 31 ✕ Monthly4H Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 TMO Wk 13 Weekly1H Mon Tue Wed Thu TWO Fri Daily15m Asia London NY AM NY PM TDO 90-minute5m 06:00 07:30 09:00 10:30 T90O Micro1m 06:00 06:22 06:45 07:07 TMCO

One day, zoomed in

The 90-minute cycle is 6 hours long. Its quarters are 90 min.

DAILY CYCLE · 24 h from 18:00 NY · 15-min candles Q1 · Asia Q2 · London Q3 · NY AM Q4 · NY PM 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 ~17:00 TDO TDRO 90-MINUTE CYCLE = Daily Q3 (6 h long) · quarters 90 min · 5-min candles Q1 · lead-in Q2 Q3 · 09:30 cash open Q4 06:00 07:30 09:00 10:30 12:00 T90O T90RO MICRO CYCLE = one 90-min block · quarters ≈22.5 min · 1-min candles Q1Q2 Q3Q4 06:00 06:22:30 06:45 07:07:30 07:30 TMCOTMCRO True Open = open of Q2 Revolving Open = open of Q4 Same rule at every level.
2 · True Open

Premium and discount in time

ABOVE TRUE OPEN → shorts only BELOW TRUE OPEN → longs only True Open (Q2 open) Q1Q2Q3Q4

One open, or two stacked?

Our backtests used one. Daye says two. Which pair do you use?

TDO (higher cycle) T90O (lower cycle) above both → best shorts between → mixed, skip? below both → best longs "If you're just looking at one true open, you're doing it wrong." (Daye)

Which open is live

Q4's open carries into the next Q1. Not in any lecture I have: where's it from?

Q1Q2 Q3Q4 next cycle Q1 prior cycle's TRO True Open (this cycle's Q2 open) TRO (this cycle's Q4 open) carries forward Exactly one reference is active at any moment. Q1 can't use its own True Open: it hasn't printed yet.
3 · SSMT

SSMT: one or two break, the rest hold

Own prior-quarter level, wick through counts. Trade against the break.

prior quarter current quarter True Open MNQ broke its low MES held ✓ YM held ✓

The gate

✓ Bullish, valid True Open prior-quarter low sweep is BELOW the True Open ✕ Bullish, no signal True Open prior-quarter low sweep is ABOVE the True Open

HSSMT: same idea, closes only

PRIOR QUARTERCURRENT QUARTER lowest wick lowest close wick only → SSMT closes below lowest close → HSSMT

When is it dead?

Our rule below. Daye instead: an opposing SSMT of equal or bigger range cancels it.

MNQ 1st · 1 of 3 → SSMT MES 2nd · 2 of 3, still alive YM 3rd · 3 of 3 All three broke the low → no divergence left → signal dead
4 · Stages

Higher cycle sets direction, lower cycle times the entry

Weekly SSMTbeyond TWO · 1H Daily SSMTbeyond TDO · 15m 90m SSMTbeyond T90O · 5m ENTRYall same direction optional?minimum Stage 1?skip to micro OK? Your Gotham checklist runs this chain. Daye: nothing below Daily calls a reversal.
5 · My SSMT trade

How I'd take it on SSMT alone

1Daily SSMT
NY AM vs London, beyond TDO
290m SSMT, same way
beyond T90O / T90RO
3Sweeper closes back inside
enter MNQ on that 5m close
4Stop
2 pts past the sweep
5Target
London's other side

1Tue 21 Oct 2025 · 15m · daily SSMT

MNQ and MES break their London low. YM holds. Break is below TDO → bullish.

LONDON · DAILY Q2NY AM · DAILY Q3 MNQ TDO London low broke it 09:41 MES TDO London low broke it 10:02 YM TDO London low held ✓ 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00

25m · 90m SSMT → entry, stop, target

10:32 MNQ breaks the 09:00–10:30 low, MES and YM hold, below T90RO. 10:35 it closes back above → long.

90m Q3 · 09:00–10:30 90m Q4 · 10:30–12:00 MNQ T90RO target 25,331 entry 25,232 stop 25,201 10:32 breaks Q3 low 10:35 closes back above → long target hit 12:01 · +3.2R MES Q3 low held ✓ YM Q3 low held ✓ 09:00 09:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00

Honest check

Same 5 rules, every day Jun 2024 – May 2026: 243 trades, −40R 48 hit target (20%)191 stopped out

One good day is easy to find. Mechanically, these 5 rules lose. Your corrections are what should fix it.

6 · Quarter Sequence (Lethality)

Same quarter, three cycles in a row

The 10 sequences on your clock

Daily · 90m · Micro quarter numbers line up. 333 = Daily Q3 · 90m Q3 · Micro Q3 = 09:45–10:07:30.

Daily6 h Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 90m90 min 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 Micro22.5 min 11118:00 11419:07 14122:30 14423:37 22201:52 33309:45 41112:00 41413:07 44116:30 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 17:00 your NY window 09:00–16:10 → 333 · 411 · 414 444 never prints (17:37 is after the close). Q1 and Q4 are the only quarters that mix.

No sequence, no SSMT

The SSMT counts only inside a sequence or with a sequence's high/low. Trade the one that held.

INSIDE: the sweep lands in the sequence 332 333 334 ESswept · higher high NQheld ✓ lower high → trade 332 → 333: ES takes 332's high inside 333. Short NQ. WITH: the sequence's extreme is the level 333 334 ESheld ✓ lower high → trade NQswept · higher high 333 → 334: NQ takes 333's high, ES fails. Short ES.

Three True Opens: A+ vs B

Daily TO (00:00) 90m TO (e.g. 07:30) Micro TO (e.g. 09:22:30) above all 3 → A+ sell above 2 → B sell mixed → no trade below 2 → B buy below all 3 → A+ buy

Same rule one level up?

My guess at how QS works for bigger SSMTs (you said Stage 1 is Daily or higher). Lethality only showed the intraday one.

Micro SSMTDaily · 90m · Micro333 = every day 09:45–10:07:30TOs: Daily · 90m · Micro
90m SSMTWeekday · Daily · 90m333 = Wednesday 09:00–10:30TOs: Weekly · Daily · 90m
Daily SSMTWeek · Weekday · Daily333 = week 3 Wednesday NY AMTOs: Monthly · Weekly · Daily

"Cheat code": 90m Q4 → next 90m Q1 (e.g. 10:30–12:00 → 12:00–13:30) counts as an SSMT pair.

7 · First test

Does QS pick better SSMTs?

Not as I've coded it: QS ≈ no QS

Every SSMT 2019–2024 (2025–26 held back). Enter the one that held at the quarter close, stop past the level it held, 1R target, costs in.

inside / with a sequence no sequence -0.4R -0.3R -0.2R -0.1R 0 +0.1R Daily SSMT Daily SSMT · inside / with a sequence: -0.13R per trade, n=385 -0.13R n=385 Daily SSMT · no sequence: -0.02R per trade, n=1,399 -0.02R n=1,399 90m SSMT 90m SSMT · inside / with a sequence: -0.14R per trade, n=2,177 -0.14R n=2,177 90m SSMT · no sequence: -0.12R per trade, n=6,669 -0.12R n=6,669 Micro SSMT Micro SSMT · inside / with a sequence: -0.23R per trade, n=10,062 -0.23R n=10,062 Micro SSMT · no sequence: -0.22R per trade, n=27,621 -0.22R n=27,621

Win rate at 1:1 ≈ 50% in every bar. Hover a bar for the trade count.

A+ (all 3 True Opens) is worse, not better

Sequence trades only. Price beyond all three opens tends to keep going, not reverse.

fewer than 2 TOs B · 2 TOs A+ · 3 TOs -0.4R -0.3R -0.2R -0.1R 0 +0.1R Daily SSMT Daily SSMT · fewer than 2 TOs: -0.09R per trade, n=219 -0.09R n=219 Daily SSMT · B · 2 TOs: -0.19R per trade, n=116 -0.19R n=116 Daily SSMT · A+ · 3 TOs: -0.15R per trade, n=50 -0.15R n=50 90m SSMT 90m SSMT · fewer than 2 TOs: -0.07R per trade, n=1,241 -0.07R n=1,241 90m SSMT · B · 2 TOs: -0.21R per trade, n=530 -0.21R n=530 90m SSMT · A+ · 3 TOs: -0.23R per trade, n=406 -0.23R n=406 Micro SSMT Micro SSMT · fewer than 2 TOs: -0.17R per trade, n=5,707 -0.17R n=5,707 Micro SSMT · B · 2 TOs: -0.27R per trade, n=2,686 -0.27R n=2,686 Micro SSMT · A+ · 3 TOs: -0.37R per trade, n=1,669 -0.37R n=1,669

His trades, decoded

His indicator rows use the exact digits my engine uses. The turn happens in the lowest cycle of a valid sequence.

7 Oct · 09:37 short333Wed · NY AM · 09:00–10:30micro SMT inside it
7 Oct · 10:53 long41490m Q4 · micro Q1 · nano Q4low in 10:47–10:52
8 Oct · 11:55 long44490m Q4 · micro Q4 · nano Q4low in 11:54–12:00 → old-sequence high
BTC 11 Oct · 17:58 long444daily Q4 · 90m Q4 · micro Q4low in 17:37–18:00

Test 2, his way: still a coin flip

Every micro SSMT 2019–2024, entered when the sweeper closes back inside. Chance MNQ goes +30 pts before −30.

A+ · 3 TOs B · 2 TOs fewer TOs grey band = luck range 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% Week·Day·90m window Week·Day·90m window · A+ · 3 TOs: 47.7% (n=2,073) Week·Day·90m window · B · 2 TOs: 47.2% (n=1,732) Week·Day·90m window · fewer TOs: 51.8% (n=2,503) Day·90m·Micro window Day·90m·Micro window · A+ · 3 TOs: 48.8% (n=1,675) Day·90m·Micro window · B · 2 TOs: 50.6% (n=1,336) Day·90m·Micro window · fewer TOs: 50.9% (n=1,887) 90m·Micro·Nano window 90m·Micro·Nano window · A+ · 3 TOs: 47.7% (n=2,508) 90m·Micro·Nano window · B · 2 TOs: 50.9% (n=1,659) 90m·Micro·Nano window · fewer TOs: 50.5% (n=2,736) no sequence no sequence · A+ · 3 TOs: 48.1% (n=14,059) no sequence · B · 2 TOs: 50.0% (n=11,517) no sequence · fewer TOs: 49.4% (n=14,579)
432exit combos tested
stops · 1R/2R/3R · old sequence · BE · EOD
1profitable 2019–22
0profitable in both 2019–22 and 2023–24
8 · With the new data

Bought, checked, re-tested

$29.22 of your $33 credit, saved on the SSD

4MNQ·MES·YM·RTY
May → 16 Oct 2026 · $2.36
RTY2017 → 2026
his 4th instrument · $10.33
6E 6B2019 → 2026
Daye's FX triad · $6.22
1s5–9 Oct 2026
his trade days · $3.23
ZN2019 → 2026
bond sentiment · $7.09

PortableSSD › Trading-Data › databento (raw + parquet + README). About $3.78 credit left.

My engine sees his trades

7 Oct · 09:37 short✓ 09:30YM swept · MNQ ES RTY heldinside Wed 333 window
7 Oct · 10:53 long✓ 10:53MNQ+ES swept · YM RTY heldlow it took was set in nano 414
8 Oct · ~11:55 long✓ 11:38MNQ swept · others heldinside nano 441 → 444

His rules lose in every period. One variant wins in all three.

Two periods the rules never saw: 2017–19 and 2025–26. MNQ, costs in, flat 15:55.

his rules as written survivor PF 0.6 PF 0.8 PF 1.0 PF 1.2 PF 1.4 break-even Jul 2017 – May 2019never seen Jul 2017 – May 2019: PF 0.76, 1546 trades, -69.3R 0.76 · -69R Jul 2017 – May 2019: PF 1.09, 388 trades, +13.8R 1.09 · +14R Jun 2019 – 2024rules built here Jun 2019 – 2024: PF 0.81, 5385 trades, -327.3R 0.81 · -327R Jun 2019 – 2024: PF 1.19, 1270 trades, +148.2R 1.19 · +148R 2025 – Oct 2026never seen 2025 – Oct 2026: PF 0.88, 1825 trades, -90.1R 0.88 · -90R 2025 – Oct 2026: PF 1.4, 342 trades, +89.4R 1.40 · +89R

The survivor

1Sequence → sequence
swept level set in a window, sweep lands in a window
2MNQ is a sweeper
fade MNQ's false move
3Not beyond 2+ True Opens
A+ loses, every period
4Enter when sweepers close back inside
within 30 min
5Stop 40 pts · target 120
flat 15:55
never seen rules built here never seen 0R 50R 100R 150R 200R 250R +251R 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
4.1trades / week
37%win rate at 3:1
−37Rworst drawdown
≈ $2,980 on 1 MNQ
12losses in a row, worst

Treat as a lead, not an edge yet: found by searching 576 combos, small (PF 1.09–1.40), and it breaks two of his rules ("trade the one that held", "A+"). A 40-pt stop is also bigger in % terms back in 2017.

9 · Quick questions

Smallest Stage-1 cycle you'd trade from?

NQ and ES break, YM holds. SSMT?

Exactly where do you enter?

Stop and target?

Does there need to be news?

Max trades, and when do you stop?

Anything else